Quick take:
- Douro Labs and Pyth Data Association are building a decentralised infrastructure to collect and distribute real-time data for every major asset class.
- Cahill believes the crypto industry will continue to advance no matter who is sworn in as U.S. president in January, drawing parallels to what happened in 2020 relative to expectations.
- He sees regulation playing a key role in helping the RWA market realise the projected valuation of $16 trillion by 2030.
As the “Bitcoin Election” approaches, the crypto industry continued to experience a considerable surge in activity with Bitcoin seeing an inflow of $2.2 billion in the past week according to a CoinShares blog. Overall Bitcoin has seen a record $29.2 billion in inflows in 2024, the report says.
One of the biggest driving forces of the crypto industry overall this year has been the growth of the real-world asset tokenisation (RWA) market, which as of this writing had more than $13 billion on-chain, up from $8 billion in January, according to RWA.xyz.
Real-world asset tokenisation is tipped to hit a market value of $16 trillion by 2030, something that Michael Cahill, the founder and CEO of Douro Labs and contributor to the Pyth deems realistic.
His company and Pyth Data Association are working on a decentralised infrastructure that will be able to collect quality real-time data for every major asset, further providing rich information to traders of tokenised real-world assets.
Cahill also shares his views about the implications of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, drawing some parallels to the 2020 election, which demonstrated ‘the resilience of the crypto industry’.
“A notable data point from the 2020 election period shows that volume and open interest increased substantially after the November 3rd election, despite Trump not being re-elected. So, I think it’s safe to say that DeFi is betting on DeFi – the sector will continue to grow no matter who takes the oath in January,” Cahill said.
There are high expectations from the industry that a Trump win will be positive for crypto, at least that’s what the predictions market platform Polymarket seems to suggest, with bets now at 58% in favour of Trump to Harris’ 42%.
Cahill discusses more about this, his early beginnings in Web3 and what he thinks needs to happen to continue advancing the crypto industry in the U.S. and globally.
Briefly tell us about your journey in Web3 and Douro Labs’ role in the Pyth Network ecosystem.
I started building in crypto back in 2019, after many years of experience in traditional finance at Jump Trading, Morgan Stanley, KCG (now part of Virtu), and Cboe. Although nearly everyone around me thought jumping into blockchain was a wild move, I knew this was the place to find the next groundbreaking innovation, like discovering a future Steve Jobs tinkering in his garage.
Since day one, I haven’t looked back. With Pyth Data Association and Douro Labs, we’ve taken early steps toward creating decentralized infrastructure designed to collect and distribute real-time data for every major asset class—and we’re just getting started. Our goal for the network is to make high-quality, real-time data accessible anytime, anywhere, empowering DeFi builders to push the boundaries of global finance.
How important is real-time data in advancing crypto adoption and what things is Pyth Network doing to accelerate the process?
Real-time data isn’t just valuable—it’s transformative. In traditional finance, it accounts for over 20% of the largest exchanges’ revenue, guarded tightly by a few players who control access and set prices. This model has kept DeFi largely restricted to crypto assets alone, limiting its reach and stifling its potential.
Pyth re-designed the data marketplace entirely, creating a universal source that is created without having to go through the exchanges. Imagine a scenario where the largest traders in the world are trading on any exchange, and reporting the fill price of their trades to Pyth. This does 2 things: first, it creates a superset of data across all exchanges be it NASDAQ or NYSE, and second gives Pyth a unique data set which is unencumbered by any distribution limitations. And because the data is coming from sources who have never historically sold data before, their opportunity costs are so low that Pyth’s cost basis is virtually zero—an advantage for DeFi and beyond.
The base assumption for the network is that it will continue to add an unmatched number of symbols and get much faster over time. The vision is to have the price of everything that trades anywhere in the world reported to Pyth, and made usable by blockchains, databases, analytic platforms, exchanges, and more.
What’s your take on the upcoming U.S. presidential election and the likely impact on Crypto, especially in the U.S.?
Open interest—representing the market participants’ positioning in terms of long and short positions—has surged by 2.5x compared to this time last year. This spike indicates a significant increase in market bets on Trump’s victory through derivatives. I think the general sentiment is that, if Trump wins, prices will surge; if Harris wins, prices will drop. However, I also believe that the markets will continue to perform regardless of the outcome. A notable data point from the 2020 election period shows that volume and open interest increased substantially after the November 3rd election, despite Trump not being re-elected. So, I think it’s safe to say that DeFi is betting on DeFi – the sector will continue to grow no matter who takes the oath in January.
How seriously do you take Trump’s promises to the crypto industry?
Trump has made it very clear that he plans to support blockchain innovation, but the reality is that we won’t know what US regulation will look like until the next president is inaugurated and real actions are taken. I want the US to be a key player in DeFi’s future, so I hope that – no matter if we have Trump or Harris at the helm – we have a leader who understands how serious it is for the US to implement sane regulation that supports blockchain builders and DeFi’s future.
With the real-world asset tokenisation market predicted to be valued at $16 trillion, what does the next U.S. administration need to do to spearhead the projected growth? Do you think those projections are realistic, or extremely ambitious and why?
The US needs sane regulation – full stop. Right now, crypto innovation is at an inflection point: tokenization, especially the RWA market, is going to change global finance as we know it because it offers unprecedented liquidity, accessibility, and efficiency in asset management. By digitizing assets like private credit, real estate, and government treasuries, the market can unlock traditionally illiquid investments, making them effortlessly tradable on blockchain-backed trading protocols. Because of this, I think it’s very reasonable that the RWA market is projected to hit at least $16 trillion by 2030, and I hope the US can implement the kind of regulatory standards that allow American builders to spearhead this once-in-a-generation kind of growth.
Which RWA tokenisation verticals (private credit, real estate, government treasuries) etc, do you see as the most promising and why?
The linear expectation for digitized RWAs suggests that while experiments with private credit and real estate hold potential, progress in these areas will likely be gradual at most. I think the real leap, or step function, is more likely to come from specific jurisdictions with unique regulatory environments.
Take treasuries, for instance: just 1.5 years ago, they barely registered on the radar because rates were low, and crypto markets held greater potential. Fast forward to a crypto winter and rising interest rates, and suddenly, treasuries become a hot commodity. As rates start to dip again and market optimism returns, the staying power of on-chain treasury markets may wane. However, this could lead to an evolution towards other debt markets with higher yields—a shift that would mark significant progress.
The other alternative is in specific jurisdictions which have gone much further down the digital frontier such as Brazil, which has several sandbox programs specifically designed to bring markets on-chain.
Where do you see the U.S. crypto market in five years? Do you think it will have fallen behind or advanced further forward from where it currently stands globally (in terms of regulation, innovation, adoption, etc)?
Crypto will continue to grow – no question. Globally, there are millions of individuals dedicated to building a decentralized future, and trillions of dollars have been invested into making the vision for on-chain finance a reality. What remains to be seen is whether or not America will play a starring role in the development of the crypto industry going forward. What we’re seeing already from key players in the space is a commitment to decentralization and innovation – no matter where that happens geographically. I want the US to implement regulation that will unlock meaningful innovation and allow American builders to participate in a market that will see hockey-stick growth over the next five years and beyond.
In your opinion, would doxxing Satoshi Nakamoto be good or bad for Bitcoin and crypto overall? Why?
Anon culture is a core component of crypto – it’s actually one of my favorite things about the industry. The fact that individuals can participate meaningfully on the basis of merit alone and strip themselves from the limitations imposed by race, ethnicity, age, culture, and gender is an important example that can and should influence the way ideas are crafted and contributed to every industry. I think Satoshi’s anonymity is critical to protecting this concept, and it’s also created an unmatched lore around Bitcoin and crypto – undoubtedly contributing to blockchain’s mystique and value. Doxxing Satoshi would be bad for Bitcoin’s price in the short term, but the reality is that the genie is out of the bottle: crypto isn’t going anywhere, and Bitcoin’s price only has one direction to go in the long term – up.
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